ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – New Mexico’s snowpack conditions are showing an “extreme difference between this year and last year,” and “are far from optimistic for New Mexico’s forecast basins,” according to hydrologists with the Natural Resources Conservation Service under the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“Snowpack can be thought of as the accumulated snow that persists on the landscape and generally builds in volume throughout the winter season to then be available for snowmelt runoff during the spring and early summer months,” explained Jaz Ammon, water supply specialist and hydrologic technician with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
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Snowpack is essential to New Mexico because the water that comes from the snow melting makes its way into the state’s water supply. “So drinking water, irrigation systems, industrial applications, and so many other aspects of the water supply,” Ammon added.
Ammon is in charge of compiling Water Supply Outlook Reports for New Mexico each month from January through May.
In the latest Feb. 1, 2025, report published on Feb. 12, which includes data collected at the end of January, hydrologists found a concerning trend in New Mexico’s snowpack.
“February 1st snowpack was uniformly below the reference period median or the normal conditions in every major watershed basin that we forecast for with the NRCS in New Mexico. So that’s kind of one time where we actually can say that we’re just below to well below normal for the entire state. We have no locations that are hovering around that normal or above-normal snowpack,” Ammon explained.
Around this time last year, New Mexico had a strong snowpack. “All major basins monitored by the NRCS Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program here in New Mexico were at or above the 30-year reference period normal or the median for snow water equivalent or snowpack accumulated on the landscape in February,” Ammon said.
The Snow Water Equivalent, which is the amount of water found in the snowpack, dropped to or below record lows in many locations in New Mexico. Poor winter snow coverage left the aggregated statewide Snow Water Equivalent totals at 55% of the reference period normal conditions for this time of year, Ammon wrote in the report.
2025, compared to 2024. (Credit: USDA NCRS)
New Mexico’s current water year started off with a wet October and November. But hydrologists said it has been “overshadowed by a lack of snowwater accumulating during the winter season. Such conditions leave little new water available for melt and runoff in the spring and early summer when many of New Mexico’s water users rely on surface water supplies most heavily,” according to the Feb. 1 report.
Water storage
When looking at New Mexico reservoir systems, which store significant amounts of water, three out of the six systems saw increases compared to this time last year.
There was a significant increase in the Pecos system for Feb. 1, and smaller increases over last year’s storage in the Canadian and Rio Grande Headwaters systems. The Pecos and Rio Grande Headwaters systems held at or above the reference period median “normal” storage volumes as of the beginning of February, according to the report.
As for the three other New Mexico reservoir systems, the Lower Rio Grande, Rio Chama-Upper Rio Grande, and San Juan storage systems held less water in storage on Feb. 1 of this year compared to last year.
Future outlook
Because of the recent winter weather conditions, if things don’t improve, hydrologists believe New Mexico could be on pace for a “statewide record low snowpack” for the 2025 winter season.
Ammon noted in the report that next month’s winter conditions will play a “crucial role in determining water availability stored on the landscape as snow for the spring runoff season.”
Despite the recent trends, there is still a chance conditions could improve for New Mexico’s snowpack.
“Speaking to, say, north-central New Mexico, kind of the Rio Grande headwaters region within New Mexico, normal snowpack peak accumulation is in the range of about a month out. It commonly occurs in mid-March, and in kind of the northern Sangre de Cristos. So, you know, there still could be time for SNOPAC to recover to a certain degree, but you know, in years like this where it has been persistently dry, there can be a tendency for that trend to continue,” said Karl Wetlaufer, a hydrologist with the NRCS National Water and Climate Center.
What happens in Colorado also impacts New Mexico. “Currently, SNOPAC in south-central Colorado that is going to feed into the Rio Grande and down into New Mexico is notably better than within the New Mexico state boundaries,” Wetlaufer noted.
As of Friday, Feb. 14, snow had already made its way into parts of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Significant snowfall is expected to continue over the northern mountains through Saturday night.