McALLEN, Texas (Border Report) — Tuesday’s rematch between the Latina political opponents in Texas Congressional District 15 is one of the most closely watched races in the state, and nation.
U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, the Republican incumbent, flipped the seat red for the first time in South Texas history back in 2022. She beat Democratic small businesswoman Michelle Vallejo by 8.5 percentage points. Now Vallejo is back for a rematch and Democrats are trying to turn the seat blue as control of the U.S. House is up for grabs and every seat counts for both parties.
And with both candidates Latinas, political experts say the winner will further seal the direction that Hispanic voters are leaning on the South Texas border.
”You’re talking about the first district in South Texas to flip from Democrat to Republican back in 2022 combined with signs that Hispanics nationally are moving away from the Democratic Party,” University of Texas Rio Grande Valley assistant political science professor Andrew Smith told Border Report.
Returning the seat to Democrats would make a statement on how the party is swaying Hispanic voters. While a repeat win for Republicans here would further prove that Hispanics are growing increasingly conservative in this region that for decades was a Democratic stronghold.
Smith says the Republican-led Texas Legislature “gerrymandered” when it redrew the district lines in 2022, which put more Republican voters into the district.
Lawmakers said they were conforming with new 2020 Census data for the state.
In 2020, President Joe Biden carried this district by nearly 2 percentage points. But if the district had been drawn to what it now is, then former President Donald Trump could have won it by nearly 3 percentage points.
“De la Cruz has the advantage of being the incumbent. She has an established, successful election infrastructure, and she benefits from the fact that the Texas Legislature did gerrymander her district to include majority white and overwhelmingly conservative places like (the towns of ) Three Rivers and George West into De La Cruz’s district, which means that even if Republicans cannot increase their majority of the Hispanic vote they feel like they won’t lose enough to put this district in danger for them,” Smith said.
Texas Congressional District 15 spans almost four hours from its southern edge on the Texas/Mexican border of Hidalgo County, to the outskirts of San Antonio.
In 2022, De La Cruz drew her support from voters in northern counties. And she again appears to be popular with ranchers and those opposing illegal immigration and who are in favor of tougher border security measures.
Vallejo’s base in 2022 was the border and in populated cities in Hidalgo County. During the last campaign she was opposed to border asylum regulations and touted universal healthcare. But this time around she’s not saying that.
In fact, this summer took a noticeably more conservative stance regarding border security and in TV ads began calling the situation at the border “chaos.”
In an interview with Border Report on Wednesday, Vallejo said she has always had that position.
”Right now it’s very clear that we have people in office who are not taking this issue seriously. I firmly believe that it is the federal government’s responsibility to secure our borders, to make sure that our border communities have the resources they need,” Vallejo said.
De La Cruz told us her opponent has flip flopped.
”My opponent is not a serious candidate. She’s changed her position on border security once standing beside Bernie Sanders and being afraid of Border Patrol and Customs agents, to now suddenly being for Border Patrol,” De La Cruz told Border Report on Wednesday when she went to cast her votes at Lark Community Center in McAllen.
De La Cruz has used the example in her TV ads, replaying old footage of Vallejo describing herself as a “progressive Democrat” and shown with Sen Sanders, an Independent from Vermont.
Vallejo says De La Cruz is inflexible when it comes to women’s reproductive rights and she says De La Cruz wants a national abortion ban.
“She’s in support of not only the near total abortion ban in Texas that has cost women’s lives, but also is in support of a national abortion ban, which is very alarming,” Vallejo told Border Report on Wednesday evening just before she spoke at a rally in Alamo, Texas, with U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who is running for Senate against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
“We’re hearing very dire reports of women in Texas that have lost their lives due to doctors being scared of providing them care when they’ve experienced a miscarriage. There’s a lot of ambiguity about what doctors can and can’t do when it comes to saving their patients lives. And that is also something that I’m hearing about from voters, even Republicans, who feel very strongly that people in office, politicians like my opponent and the government, have gone too far in meddling in our own personal decisions that should be up to us, our faith and our doctors,” Vallejo said.
De La Cruz touts that she has proposed several bills including sanctions against Mexico for not paying water it owes South Texas, according to a 1944 treaty.
She also has formed a South Texas Water Working Group with several Valley leaders to try to tackle long-term water solutions.
She says she is confident voters will come out and show their support to send her back to Washington on Tuesday.
“I have shown over the last two years that I am the congresswoman for everyone, whether you’re red, blue, I stand for the red, white and blue, and I’m going to fight for legislation that positively affects our community. I’ve brought over $25 million new dollars into our community from projects at the International Airport, projects that support women who have been harmed by domestic violence, and projects that support our local law enforcement. I am going to continue to fight for what’s important to all of our voters,” De La Cruz said.
Election Day is Tuesday and polls are open in South Texas from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. CST.
Sandra Sanchez can be reached at SSanchez@BorderReport.com.